What Big Bets on Natural Gas Mean for Propane Prices

This week it was announced that one of the biggest (and most successful) private-equity shops on Wall Street has been on a natural gas buying spree- to the tune of $7 Billion. That’s with a B. Their latest investment was a $1.57B purchase for a stake in a new natural gas pipeline that runs through Ohio.

To put this investment in context, Blackstone is the same firm that made a killing buying up foreclosed homes right after the financial crisis in 2008. They have great timing, and have some of the biggest brains on Wall Street working for them.

So does this kind of a bet mean higher natural gas prices? Not necessarily. Blackstone says their investment is based on a bet that production will grow- if prices go up it’s gravy for them. But if more gas moves through their pipelines, they make more money no matter what the price is. That means they believe that the natural gas production in the US is going to increase- a lot.

They might also be betting that natural gas prices will eventually go up. As the US builds more LNG export facilities, US natural gas will have greater access to a global market that buys gas for almost twice what it costs in the US. That will take time, but Blackstone is patient.

As for propane, it’s a bi-product of natural gas production. That means that an increase in natural gas production equals even greater propane production. That means supplies in the US continue to grow, which will should continue to keep propane prices relatively low.

Unless of course, US propane finds higher prices overseas. If propane gets loaded on boats for other countries it doesn’t matter how much is produced here. Time will tell.

In the meantime, the smartest money in America is betting on American energy production- and a lot more of it.